Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment within the Framework of the ChEESE Center of Excellence
Education, Training and Outreach
TimeWednesday, 11 November 20203:55pm - 4pm EDT
DescriptionWithin the framework of ChEESE (Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth) we are developing a Pilot Demonstrator to show the usefulness of HPC in Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment at two target volcanoes, Campi Flegrei, Italy and Jan Mayen, Norway. The relevance of Jan Mayen in terms of Volcanic Hazard Assessment (VHA) is mainly due to its location nearby high-traffic air routes, so its activity could heavily affect traffic from hours after eruption onset to weeks in case of prolonged activity. For Campi Flegrei, located in one of the densest areas of Europe, relevant VHA aims to assess the impact on people, strategical infrastructures and assets and continental Eurasian air traffic.
The Pilot focuses on ash impact, which is simulated using ChEESE's flagship Fall3D numeric code to model ash transport, dispersal and deposition. Due to the probabilistic approach, a large amount of volcanic scenarios is considered to explore the natural variability and uncertainty on the eruptive conditions performing thousands of simulations on a 3D-grid covering a 2Km-resolution 2000km x 2000km geological domain. They run on the Intel-Xeon-8168-2.7GHz Joliot Curie SKL-partition with 48 cores/node at CEA/TGCC-HPC facility in France, thanks to the PRACE-awarded computational resources.
The scientific innovation of this application sits in the possibility given by HPC to execute the code, and consequently assess volcanic hazard, based on a large number of simulations in a high resolution domain. This allows to account for the scope of very-low-probability but high-impact events, which may be from locally to national scale.